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Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — SakiCast — SakiCast

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Event

Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Limited DataHigh confidence

Events/Forecast details

Volume:$200.8K

Liquidity:$2.3K

Trades end:2 months, Apr 12, 2026

Low market liquidity ($2.3K)

A) Standard Forecast

Estimated probability based on market data and a smoothing signal.

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YES

**.*%

YESNO

C) Verify & Trade

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Always verify data on the original market before making decisions. SakiCast provides estimates only.

Enhanced Forecast🤖

News sentiment-enhanced prediction with market analysis.

Enhanced Forecast

⭐PRO📉Bearish Signal

High confidence

🤖

News Analysis-1.8pp from news

Recent news articles suggest uncertainty and potential challenges for Italy's qualification to the 2026 FIFA World Cup

•Italy is not included in the initial 2026 FIFA World Cup draw
•There are 22 teams still competing for remaining World Cup spots, indicating fierce competition
•No recent articles explicitly confirm Italy's qualification or strong chances of qualifying

Enhanced YES

⭐PRO

62%

Enhanced NO

⭐PRO

38%

Market YES

65%

Difference

−2.6 pp

ML Indicators

Momentum

Neutral

Trend Velocity

0.05%

Volatility

0.6%

Confidence

60%

View enhanced analysis factors →

Momentum indicator: 0.00 pp/period
Trend velocity: +0.045 pp/period
Trend acceleration: -0.05 pp/period²
Mean reversion: -1.19 pp
RSI: 100 (overbought)
MACD: neutral
Regime: choppy
Technical adjustment: -0.34 pp
Technical weight: 50% (Pro enhanced)
Sentiment: bearish (60% confidence)
News Impact: medium
Adjustment: -1.8pp from news

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Forecast Comparison

See how premium predictions differ from standard.

Standard

64%

Difference

−0.7 pp

👑Premium

64%

B) Market check

Compare the market-implied YES probability vs SakiCast.

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Market implied (YES)

**.*%

SakiCast (YES)

**.*%

Difference

**.*pp

More detail (chart + model inputs + methodology)

Probability history

Line chart of estimated YES probability over time.

Model inputs

Simplified factors used in this forecast.

EMA signal: 63.8% YES
Rolling-average (SMA): 64.4% YES
Trend bias: 0.5 percentage points
Volatility weighting: 99%
RSI: 100 (overbought)
MACD: neutral
Market regime: choppy
Technical adjustment: -0.3pp

Multi-Timeframe Analysis

Signals across different time windows for a more robust view.

Multi-Timeframe Analysis

64.1% composite

Consistency

Moderate

79%

Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Enhanced Forecast

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How This Forecast Works