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Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting? — SakiCast — SakiCast

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Event

Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting?

Insufficient Data

Events/Forecast details

Volume:$146

Liquidity:$4.5K

Trades end:3 months, Apr 30, 2026

Very low trading volume ($146)

A) Standard Forecast

Estimated probability based on market data and a smoothing signal.

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YES

**.*%

YESNO

C) Verify & Trade

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Enhanced Forecast🤖

News sentiment-enhanced prediction with market analysis.

Enhanced Forecast

⭐PRO📊Neutral

High confidence

🤖

News AnalysisNo adjustment

The news articles do not provide new information that would significantly affect the probability of the ECB announcing a 50+ bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting

•The articles are from February and November 2025, and may not reflect current market conditions
•The articles discuss betting odds and predictions for the February 2026 meeting, not the April 2026 meeting
•There is no explicit mention of a 50+ bps decrease in the April 2026 meeting

Enhanced YES

⭐PRO

Enhanced NO

⭐PRO

96%

Market YES

Difference

+1.9 pp

ML Indicators

Momentum

Neutral

Trend Velocity

-0.00%

Volatility

0.0%

Confidence

60%

View enhanced analysis factors →

Momentum indicator: 0.00 pp/period
Trend velocity: -0.005 pp/period
Trend acceleration: -0.05 pp/period²
Mean reversion: +3.83 pp
RSI: 50 (neutral)
MACD: neutral
Regime: mean reverting
Technical adjustment: +0.00 pp
Technical weight: 50% (Pro enhanced)
Sentiment: neutral (60% confidence)
News Impact: low
Adjustment: No adjustment

🔐

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Forecast Comparison

See how premium predictions differ from standard.

Standard

Difference

+1.9 pp

👑Premium

B) Market check

Compare the market-implied YES probability vs SakiCast.

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Market implied (YES)

**.*%

SakiCast (YES)

**.*%

Difference

**.*pp

More detail (chart + model inputs + methodology)

Probability history

Line chart of estimated YES probability over time.

Model inputs

Simplified factors used in this forecast.

EMA signal: 2.1% YES
Rolling-average (SMA): 2.1% YES
Trend bias: 0.0 percentage points
Volatility weighting: 100%
RSI: 50 (neutral)
MACD: neutral
Market regime: mean reverting
Technical adjustment: +0.0pp

Multi-Timeframe Analysis

Signals across different time windows for a more robust view.

Multi-Timeframe Analysis

2.1% composite

Consistency

Strong

100%

Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting?

Enhanced Forecast

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How This Forecast Works