SakiCast

A) Forecast

Loading forecast data...

C) Next step

B) Market check

Loading market comparison...

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? — SakiCast — SakiCast

←Back to forecasts

Event

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Good DataHigh confidence

Events/Forecast details

Volume:$689.9K

Liquidity:$148.1K

Trades end:2 months, Apr 29, 2026

A) Standard Forecast

Estimated probability based on market data and a smoothing signal.

Create a free account to unlock full forecast details

YES

**.*%

YESNO

C) Verify & Trade

External link. SakiCast does not handle trading.

Open on Polymarket ↗

Always verify data on the original market before making decisions. SakiCast provides estimates only.

Enhanced Forecast🤖

News sentiment-enhanced prediction with market analysis.

Enhanced Forecast

⭐PRO📊Neutral

High confidence

🤖

News AnalysisNo adjustment

The news articles do not provide significant information relevant to the market question about the Fed decreasing interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting

•Most articles discuss past or unrelated events, such as Bank of England decisions or Fed decisions in different months
•Only one article from August 2025 mentions a potential interest rate cut, but it does not specifically discuss the April 2026 meeting
•The Polymarket articles are outdated and do not provide relevant insights for the April 2026 meeting

Enhanced YES

⭐PRO

Enhanced NO

⭐PRO

96%

Market YES

Difference

+1.9 pp

ML Indicators

Momentum

Neutral

Trend Velocity

0.00%

Volatility

0.0%

Confidence

60%

View enhanced analysis factors →

Momentum indicator: 0.00 pp/period
Trend velocity: 0.000 pp/period
Trend acceleration: 0.00 pp/period²
Mean reversion: +3.80 pp
RSI: 50 (neutral)
MACD: neutral
Regime: choppy
Technical adjustment: -0.00 pp
Technical weight: 50% (Pro enhanced)
Sentiment: neutral (60% confidence)
News Impact: low
Adjustment: No adjustment

🔐

Sign In Required

Forecast Comparison

See how premium predictions differ from standard.

Standard

Difference

+1.9 pp

👑Premium

B) Market check

Compare the market-implied YES probability vs SakiCast.

Create a free account to unlock full forecast details

Market implied (YES)

**.*%

SakiCast (YES)

**.*%

Difference

**.*pp

More detail (chart + model inputs + methodology)

Probability history

Line chart of estimated YES probability over time.

Model inputs

Simplified factors used in this forecast.

EMA signal: 2.4% YES
Rolling-average (SMA): 2.4% YES
Trend bias: 0.0 percentage points
Volatility weighting: 100%
RSI: 50 (neutral)
MACD: neutral
Market regime: choppy
Technical adjustment: -0.0pp

Multi-Timeframe Analysis

Signals across different time windows for a more robust view.

Multi-Timeframe Analysis

2.5% composite

Consistency

Strong

100%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Enhanced Forecast

Sign In Required

How This Forecast Works