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Will the highest temperature in New York City be 33°F or below on February 13? — SakiCast — SakiCast

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Event

Will the highest temperature in New York City be 33°F or below on February 13?

Limited DataMedium confidence

Events/Forecast details

Volume:$27.5K

Liquidity:$1.4K

Trades end:Unknown

Low market liquidity ($1.4K)

A) Standard Forecast

Estimated probability based on market data and a smoothing signal.

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YES

**.*%

YESNO

C) Verify & Trade

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Always verify data on the original market before making decisions. SakiCast provides estimates only.

Enhanced Forecast🤖

News sentiment-enhanced prediction with market analysis.

Enhanced Forecast

⭐PRO📊Neutral

Medium confidence

🤖

News Analysis-0.8pp from news

Recent news articles do not provide strong evidence to suggest that the highest temperature in New York City will be 33°F or below on February 13.

•Article 1 mentions sunny and mild weather for February 13, contradicting the market question.
•Article 2 discusses warm temperatures in New Jersey, which may be relevant to NYC weather.
•Most articles are not directly relevant to the market question or are outdated.

Enhanced YES

⭐PRO

Enhanced NO

⭐PRO

93%

Market YES

10%

Difference

−2.7 pp

ML Indicators

Momentum

Bullish

Trend Velocity

0.78%

Volatility

2.6%

Confidence

60%

View enhanced analysis factors →

Momentum indicator: +1.88 pp/period
Trend velocity: +0.782 pp/period
Trend acceleration: +8.07 pp/period²
Mean reversion: +3.36 pp
RSI: 64 (neutral)
MACD: neutral
Regime: trending up
Technical adjustment: -0.20 pp
Technical weight: 50% (Pro enhanced)
Sentiment: bearish (60% confidence)
News Impact: low
Adjustment: -0.8pp from news

🔐

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Forecast Comparison

See how premium predictions differ from standard.

Standard

Difference

−0.2 pp

👑Premium

B) Market check

Compare the market-implied YES probability vs SakiCast.

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Market implied (YES)

**.*%

SakiCast (YES)

**.*%

Difference

**.*pp

More detail (chart + model inputs + methodology)

Probability history

Line chart of estimated YES probability over time.

Model inputs

Simplified factors used in this forecast.

EMA signal: 4.4% YES
Rolling-average (SMA): 5.7% YES
Trend bias: 8.5 percentage points
Volatility weighting: 88%
RSI: 64 (neutral)
MACD: neutral
Market regime: trending up
Technical adjustment: -0.2pp

Multi-Timeframe Analysis

Signals across different time windows for a more robust view.

Multi-Timeframe Analysis

5.0% composite

Consistency

Strong

84%

Will the highest temperature in New York City be 33°F or below on February 13?

Enhanced Forecast

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How This Forecast Works