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Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? — SakiCast — SakiCast

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Event

Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?

Good DataHigh confidence

Events/Forecast details

Volume:$260.2K

Liquidity:$9.6K

Trades end:Unknown

Resolution date unknown

A) Standard Forecast

Estimated probability based on market data and a smoothing signal.

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YES

**.*%

YESNO

C) Verify & Trade

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Enhanced Forecast🤖

News sentiment-enhanced prediction with market analysis.

Enhanced Forecast

⭐PRO📈Bullish Signal

Low confidence

🤖

News Analysis+2.1pp from news

Recent news articles suggest MegaETH is actively preparing for its launch and has plans for an airdrop, which increases the likelihood of it happening by June 30.

•MegaETH has announced plans for an airdrop and CEX listing
•The project is backed by notable figures like Vitalik Buterin, adding credibility
•Recent articles imply a structured approach to the token's launch and distribution

Enhanced YES

⭐PRO

63%

Enhanced NO

⭐PRO

37%

Market YES

62%

Difference

+0.9 pp

ML Indicators

Momentum

Bullish

Trend Velocity

0.13%

Volatility

6.4%

Confidence

70%

View enhanced analysis factors →

Momentum indicator: +0.01 pp/period
Trend velocity: +0.132 pp/period
Trend acceleration: +14.87 pp/period²
Mean reversion: -0.71 pp
RSI: 16 (oversold)
MACD: bearish
Regime: trending down
Technical adjustment: -0.72 pp
Technical weight: 50% (Pro enhanced)
Sentiment: bullish (70% confidence)
News Impact: medium
Adjustment: +2.1pp from news

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Forecast Comparison

See how premium predictions differ from standard.

Standard

63%

Difference

−2.0 pp

👑Premium

61%

B) Market check

Compare the market-implied YES probability vs SakiCast.

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Market implied (YES)

**.*%

SakiCast (YES)

**.*%

Difference

**.*pp

More detail (chart + model inputs + methodology)

Probability history

Line chart of estimated YES probability over time.

Model inputs

Simplified factors used in this forecast.

EMA signal: 63.1% YES
Rolling-average (SMA): 62.2% YES
Trend bias: 0.9 percentage points
Volatility weighting: 97%
RSI: 16 (oversold)
MACD: bearish
Market regime: trending down
Technical adjustment: -0.7pp

Multi-Timeframe Analysis

Signals across different time windows for a more robust view.

Multi-Timeframe Analysis

64.7% composite

Consistency

Moderate

79%

Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?

Enhanced Forecast

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How This Forecast Works