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Mike Johnson out as Speaker by March 31? — SakiCast — SakiCast

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Event

Mike Johnson out as Speaker by March 31?

Good DataHigh confidence

Events/Forecast details

Volume:$20.8K

Liquidity:$7.5K

Trades end:2 months, Mar 31, 2026

A) Standard Forecast

Estimated probability based on market data and a smoothing signal.

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YES

**.*%

YESNO

C) Verify & Trade

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Enhanced Forecast🤖

News sentiment-enhanced prediction with market analysis.

Enhanced Forecast

⭐PRO📊Neutral

High confidence

🤖

News AnalysisNo adjustment

Recent news articles suggest both potential challenges and stability in Mike Johnson's position as Speaker, making the overall impact on the market question uncertain

•Article 1 implies potential opposition within the Republican party
•Article 2 suggests pressure on Speaker Johnson to address specific issues, potentially testing his leadership
•Articles 3, 4, and 5 do not directly indicate imminent removal of Mike Johnson as Speaker

Enhanced YES

⭐PRO

Enhanced NO

⭐PRO

95%

Market YES

Difference

+2.3 pp

ML Indicators

Momentum

Bullish

Trend Velocity

0.01%

Volatility

0.0%

Confidence

60%

View enhanced analysis factors →

Momentum indicator: +0.04 pp/period
Trend velocity: +0.014 pp/period
Trend acceleration: +0.19 pp/period²
Mean reversion: +3.79 pp
RSI: 100 (overbought)
MACD: neutral
Regime: choppy
Technical adjustment: +1.06 pp
Technical weight: 50% (Pro enhanced)
Sentiment: mixed (60% confidence)
News Impact: medium
Adjustment: No adjustment

🔐

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Forecast Comparison

See how premium predictions differ from standard.

Standard

Difference

+2.0 pp

👑Premium

B) Market check

Compare the market-implied YES probability vs SakiCast.

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Market implied (YES)

**.*%

SakiCast (YES)

**.*%

Difference

**.*pp

More detail (chart + model inputs + methodology)

Probability history

Line chart of estimated YES probability over time.

Model inputs

Simplified factors used in this forecast.

EMA signal: 3.7% YES
Rolling-average (SMA): 2.6% YES
Trend bias: 0.2 percentage points
Volatility weighting: 100%
RSI: 100 (overbought)
MACD: neutral
Market regime: choppy
Technical adjustment: +1.1pp

Multi-Timeframe Analysis

Signals across different time windows for a more robust view.

Multi-Timeframe Analysis

2.6% composite

Consistency

Strong

100%

Mike Johnson out as Speaker by March 31?

Enhanced Forecast

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How This Forecast Works