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Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on February 13? — SakiCast — SakiCast

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Event

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on February 13?

Insufficient Data

Events/Forecast details

Volume:$489

Liquidity:$508

Trades end:7 hours, Feb 13, 2026

Very low trading volume ($489)

A) Standard Forecast

Estimated probability based on market data and a smoothing signal.

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YES

**.*%

YESNO

C) Verify & Trade

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Enhanced Forecast🤖

News sentiment-enhanced prediction with market analysis.

Enhanced Forecast

⭐PRO📊Neutral

Low confidence

🤖

News AnalysisNo adjustment

Recent news articles show a mix of positive and negative trends in the market, making it uncertain whether Microsoft stock will close above $400 on February 13

•Tech stocks, including Microsoft, have recently powered Nasdaq and S&P 500 gains
•Microsoft stock has been hovering near $400, indicating a potential breakout
•Market volatility and risk-off sentiment have led to sharp declines in recent days

Enhanced YES

⭐PRO

63%

Enhanced NO

⭐PRO

37%

Market YES

74%

Difference

−10.8 pp

ML Indicators

Momentum

Bullish

Trend Velocity

2.05%

Volatility

6.3%

Confidence

60%

View enhanced analysis factors →

Momentum indicator: +4.50 pp/period
Trend velocity: +2.045 pp/period
Trend acceleration: +27.45 pp/period²
Mean reversion: -1.25 pp
RSI: 77 (overbought)
MACD: bullish
Regime: trending up
Technical adjustment: -0.24 pp
Technical weight: 50% (Pro enhanced)
Sentiment: mixed (60% confidence)
News Impact: medium
Adjustment: No adjustment

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Forecast Comparison

See how premium predictions differ from standard.

Standard

70%

Difference

−6.7 pp

👑Premium

63%

B) Market check

Compare the market-implied YES probability vs SakiCast.

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Market implied (YES)

**.*%

SakiCast (YES)

**.*%

Difference

**.*pp

More detail (chart + model inputs + methodology)

Probability history

Line chart of estimated YES probability over time.

Model inputs

Simplified factors used in this forecast.

EMA signal: 62.8% YES
Rolling-average (SMA): 64.3% YES
Trend bias: 25.0 percentage points
Volatility weighting: 69%
RSI: 77 (overbought)
MACD: bullish
Market regime: trending up
Technical adjustment: -0.2pp

Multi-Timeframe Analysis

Signals across different time windows for a more robust view.

Multi-Timeframe Analysis

65.5% composite

Consistency

Moderate

73%

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on February 13?

Enhanced Forecast

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How This Forecast Works