SakiCast

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Negative GDP growth in 2025? — SakiCast — SakiCast

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Event

Negative GDP growth in 2025?

Good DataHigh confidence

Events/Forecast details

Volume:$168.7K

Liquidity:$6.6K

Trades end:Unknown

Resolution date unknown

A) Standard Forecast

Estimated probability based on market data and a smoothing signal.

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YES

**.*%

YESNO

C) Verify & Trade

External link. SakiCast does not handle trading.

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Always verify data on the original market before making decisions. SakiCast provides estimates only.

Enhanced Forecast🤖

News sentiment-enhanced prediction with market analysis.

Enhanced Forecast

⭐PRO📉Bearish Signal

High confidence

🤖

News Analysis-1.8pp from news

Recent news articles suggest a potential for negative GDP growth in 2025, particularly if a shutdown drags on, which could increase the probability of the market resolving YES

•Some states are experiencing negative GDP and employment growth in 2025H1
•A White House economic adviser warns of potential negative US fourth-quarter GDP if the shutdown continues
•Historical data and expert opinions indicate potential misleading GDP growth numbers

Enhanced YES

⭐PRO

<1%

Enhanced NO

⭐PRO

>99%

Market YES

<1%

Difference

+0.2 pp

ML Indicators

Momentum

Neutral

Trend Velocity

0.01%

Volatility

0.0%

Confidence

60%

View enhanced analysis factors →

Momentum indicator: 0.00 pp/period
Trend velocity: +0.009 pp/period
Trend acceleration: +0.14 pp/period²
Mean reversion: +3.95 pp
RSI: 67 (neutral)
MACD: neutral
Regime: choppy
Technical adjustment: -0.00 pp
Technical weight: 50% (Pro enhanced)
Sentiment: bearish (60% confidence)
News Impact: medium
Adjustment: -1.8pp from news

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Forecast Comparison

See how premium predictions differ from standard.

Standard

<1%

Difference

+2.0 pp

👑Premium

B) Market check

Compare the market-implied YES probability vs SakiCast.

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Market implied (YES)

**.*%

SakiCast (YES)

**.*%

Difference

**.*pp

More detail (chart + model inputs + methodology)

Probability history

Line chart of estimated YES probability over time.

Model inputs

Simplified factors used in this forecast.

EMA signal: 0.6% YES
Rolling-average (SMA): 0.6% YES
Trend bias: 0.0 percentage points
Volatility weighting: 100%
RSI: 67 (neutral)
MACD: neutral
Market regime: choppy
Technical adjustment: -0.0pp

Multi-Timeframe Analysis

Signals across different time windows for a more robust view.

Multi-Timeframe Analysis

0.6% composite

Consistency

Strong

100%

Negative GDP growth in 2025?

Enhanced Forecast

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How This Forecast Works