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Rojas guilty in Texas illegal abortion case? — SakiCast — SakiCast

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Event

Rojas guilty in Texas illegal abortion case?

Limited DataHigh confidence

Events/Forecast details

Volume:$42.3K

Liquidity:$4.3K

Trades end:2 weeks, Feb 28, 2026

Low market liquidity ($4.3K)

A) Standard Forecast

Estimated probability based on market data and a smoothing signal.

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YES

**.*%

YESNO

C) Verify & Trade

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Enhanced Forecast🤖

News sentiment-enhanced prediction with market analysis.

Enhanced Forecast

⭐PRO📈Bullish Signal

High confidence

🤖

News Analysis+4.0pp from news

Recent news articles indicate a strong likelihood of a guilty verdict in the Rojas case due to multiple indictments and arrests related to illegal abortion charges

•Rojas, a Houston midwife, has been indicted on 15 new felony charges
•Eight individuals, including Rojas, have been indicted in connection to the alleged illegal abortion case
•Rojas and others have been arrested and are facing charges, suggesting a strong case against them

Enhanced YES

⭐PRO

Enhanced NO

⭐PRO

91%

Market YES

Difference

+6.6 pp

ML Indicators

Momentum

Neutral

Trend Velocity

-0.12%

Volatility

0.6%

Confidence

80%

View enhanced analysis factors →

Momentum indicator: -0.02 pp/period
Trend velocity: -0.123 pp/period
Trend acceleration: -1.03 pp/period²
Mean reversion: +3.85 pp
RSI: 19 (oversold)
MACD: neutral
Regime: mean reverting
Technical adjustment: +0.95 pp
Technical weight: 50% (Pro enhanced)
Sentiment: bullish (80% confidence)
News Impact: high
Adjustment: +4.0pp from news

🔐

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Forecast Comparison

See how premium predictions differ from standard.

Standard

Difference

+2.2 pp

👑Premium

B) Market check

Compare the market-implied YES probability vs SakiCast.

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Market implied (YES)

**.*%

SakiCast (YES)

**.*%

Difference

**.*pp

More detail (chart + model inputs + methodology)

Probability history

Line chart of estimated YES probability over time.

Model inputs

Simplified factors used in this forecast.

EMA signal: 3.5% YES
Rolling-average (SMA): 2.3% YES
Trend bias: -0.8 percentage points
Volatility weighting: 98%
RSI: 19 (oversold)
MACD: neutral
Market regime: mean reverting
Technical adjustment: +1.0pp

Multi-Timeframe Analysis

Signals across different time windows for a more robust view.

Multi-Timeframe Analysis

2.5% composite

Consistency

Moderate

79%

Rojas guilty in Texas illegal abortion case?

Enhanced Forecast

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How This Forecast Works