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Will the price of Solana be above $40 on February 15? — SakiCast — SakiCast

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Event

Will the price of Solana be above $40 on February 15?

Limited DataHigh confidence

Events/Forecast details

Volume:$5.4K

Liquidity:$13.4K

Trades end:2 days, Feb 15, 2026

Low trading volume ($5.4K)

A) Standard Forecast

Estimated probability based on market data and a smoothing signal.

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YES

**.*%

YESNO

C) Verify & Trade

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Always verify data on the original market before making decisions. SakiCast provides estimates only.

Enhanced Forecast🤖

News sentiment-enhanced prediction with market analysis.

Enhanced Forecast

⭐PRO📉Bearish Signal

High confidence

🤖

News Analysis-2.1pp from news

Recent news articles suggest a downward trend in Solana's price, potentially reducing the likelihood of it being above $40 on February 15.

•Solana's price has fallen below $80, indicating a cyclical boom end
•Alameda's movement of $15M SOL may contribute to a bearish target of $60
•Solana's current price setup echoes the 2022 bear market, suggesting further decline

Enhanced YES

⭐PRO

96%

Enhanced NO

⭐PRO

Market YES

>99%

Difference

−4.1 pp

ML Indicators

Momentum

Neutral

Trend Velocity

0.00%

Volatility

0.0%

Confidence

70%

View enhanced analysis factors →

Momentum indicator: 0.00 pp/period
Trend velocity: 0.000 pp/period
Trend acceleration: -0.05 pp/period²
Mean reversion: -3.97 pp
RSI: 50 (neutral)
MACD: neutral
Regime: choppy
Technical adjustment: -0.00 pp
Technical weight: 50% (Pro enhanced)
Sentiment: bearish (70% confidence)
News Impact: medium
Adjustment: -2.1pp from news

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Forecast Comparison

See how premium predictions differ from standard.

Standard

>99%

Difference

−2.0 pp

👑Premium

98%

B) Market check

Compare the market-implied YES probability vs SakiCast.

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Market implied (YES)

**.*%

SakiCast (YES)

**.*%

Difference

**.*pp

More detail (chart + model inputs + methodology)

Probability history

Line chart of estimated YES probability over time.

Model inputs

Simplified factors used in this forecast.

EMA signal: 99.6% YES
Rolling-average (SMA): 99.6% YES
Trend bias: 0.0 percentage points
Volatility weighting: 100%
RSI: 50 (neutral)
MACD: neutral
Market regime: choppy
Technical adjustment: -0.0pp

Multi-Timeframe Analysis

Signals across different time windows for a more robust view.

Multi-Timeframe Analysis

99.6% composite

Consistency

Strong

100%

Will the price of Solana be above $40 on February 15?

Enhanced Forecast

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How This Forecast Works