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Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026? — SakiCast — SakiCast

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Event

Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?

Limited DataHigh confidence

Events/Forecast details

Volume:$21.9K

Liquidity:$1.3K

Trades end:Unknown

Low market liquidity ($1.3K)

A) Standard Forecast

Estimated probability based on market data and a smoothing signal.

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YES

**.*%

YESNO

C) Verify & Trade

External link. SakiCast does not handle trading.

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Always verify data on the original market before making decisions. SakiCast provides estimates only.

Enhanced Forecast🤖

News sentiment-enhanced prediction with market analysis.

Enhanced Forecast

⭐PRO📈Bullish Signal

High confidence

🤖

News Analysis+1.8pp from news

Recent regional election losses for Sánchez's Socialists may increase pressure for a snap election in Spain, potentially resolving the market question to YES

•Sánchez's Socialists suffered a heavy loss in a regional Spanish election
•The loss may weaken the current government's position and prompt a snap election
•The news articles do not directly mention a snap election call in Spain, but the regional election results could contribute to such an outcome

Enhanced YES

⭐PRO

20%

Enhanced NO

⭐PRO

80%

Market YES

17%

Difference

+3.1 pp

ML Indicators

Momentum

Neutral

Trend Velocity

0.00%

Volatility

0.2%

Confidence

60%

View enhanced analysis factors →

Momentum indicator: 0.00 pp/period
Trend velocity: 0.000 pp/period
Trend acceleration: 0.00 pp/period²
Mean reversion: +2.68 pp
RSI: 50 (neutral)
MACD: neutral
Regime: choppy
Technical adjustment: -0.00 pp
Technical weight: 50% (Pro enhanced)
Sentiment: bullish (60% confidence)
News Impact: medium
Adjustment: +1.8pp from news

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Forecast Comparison

See how premium predictions differ from standard.

Standard

16%

Difference

+1.3 pp

👑Premium

18%

B) Market check

Compare the market-implied YES probability vs SakiCast.

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Market implied (YES)

**.*%

SakiCast (YES)

**.*%

Difference

**.*pp

More detail (chart + model inputs + methodology)

Probability history

Line chart of estimated YES probability over time.

Model inputs

Simplified factors used in this forecast.

EMA signal: 16.5% YES
Rolling-average (SMA): 16.5% YES
Trend bias: 0.0 percentage points
Volatility weighting: 100%
RSI: 50 (neutral)
MACD: neutral
Market regime: choppy
Technical adjustment: -0.0pp

Multi-Timeframe Analysis

Signals across different time windows for a more robust view.

Multi-Timeframe Analysis

16.5% composite

Consistency

Strong

100%

Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?

Enhanced Forecast

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How This Forecast Works