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Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? — SakiCast — SakiCast

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Event

Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Good DataHigh confidence

Events/Forecast details

Volume:$1.1M

Liquidity:$21.1K

Trades end:2 weeks, Mar 3, 2026

A) Standard Forecast

Estimated probability based on market data and a smoothing signal.

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YES

**.*%

YESNO

C) Verify & Trade

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Always verify data on the original market before making decisions. SakiCast provides estimates only.

Enhanced Forecast🤖

News sentiment-enhanced prediction with market analysis.

Enhanced Forecast

⭐PRO📈Bullish Signal

High confidence

🤖

News Analysis+2.1pp from news

Recent news articles suggest Ken Paxton is leading in the polls for the Texas Republican Senate primary, which could indicate a higher likelihood of him winning the primary.

•Ken Paxton is leading John Cornyn in recent polls
•The primary is described as crowded, which may affect Paxton's chances
•Multiple news sources are reporting Paxton's lead, increasing confidence in the polling data

Enhanced YES

⭐PRO

71%

Enhanced NO

⭐PRO

29%

Market YES

71%

Difference

+0.6 pp

ML Indicators

Momentum

Bullish

Trend Velocity

0.09%

Volatility

0.3%

Confidence

70%

View enhanced analysis factors →

Momentum indicator: +0.25 pp/period
Trend velocity: +0.091 pp/period
Trend acceleration: +0.91 pp/period²
Mean reversion: -1.62 pp
RSI: 100 (overbought)
MACD: neutral
Regime: choppy
Technical adjustment: -0.49 pp
Technical weight: 50% (Pro enhanced)
Sentiment: bullish (70% confidence)
News Impact: medium
Adjustment: +2.1pp from news

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Forecast Comparison

See how premium predictions differ from standard.

Standard

70%

Difference

−1.1 pp

👑Premium

69%

B) Market check

Compare the market-implied YES probability vs SakiCast.

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Market implied (YES)

**.*%

SakiCast (YES)

**.*%

Difference

**.*pp

More detail (chart + model inputs + methodology)

Probability history

Line chart of estimated YES probability over time.

Model inputs

Simplified factors used in this forecast.

EMA signal: 69.4% YES
Rolling-average (SMA): 69.9% YES
Trend bias: 1.0 percentage points
Volatility weighting: 98%
RSI: 100 (overbought)
MACD: neutral
Market regime: choppy
Technical adjustment: -0.5pp

Multi-Timeframe Analysis

Signals across different time windows for a more robust view.

Multi-Timeframe Analysis

70.0% composite

Consistency

Strong

89%

Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Enhanced Forecast

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How This Forecast Works