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Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? — SakiCast — SakiCast

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Event

Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?

Good DataHigh confidence

Events/Forecast details

Volume:$104.0K

Liquidity:$11.1K

Trades end:Unknown

Resolution date unknown

A) Standard Forecast

Estimated probability based on market data and a smoothing signal.

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YES

**.*%

YESNO

C) Verify & Trade

External link. SakiCast does not handle trading.

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Always verify data on the original market before making decisions. SakiCast provides estimates only.

Enhanced Forecast🤖

News sentiment-enhanced prediction with market analysis.

Enhanced Forecast

⭐PRO📉Bearish Signal

High confidence

🤖

News Analysis-1.8pp from news

Recent news articles suggest that Russia's military advancements and actions may not necessarily lead to the capture of Sumy by March 31, 2027

•Article 4 indicates Russian forces have already 'captured' Sumy, but this may not be a lasting control
•Institute for the Study of War reports provide context on Russian military campaigns but do not guarantee future successes
•The focus on military technology and defense overhauls may not directly translate to territorial gains

Enhanced YES

⭐PRO

16%

Enhanced NO

⭐PRO

84%

Market YES

16%

Difference

−0.4 pp

ML Indicators

Momentum

Neutral

Trend Velocity

0.00%

Volatility

0.0%

Confidence

60%

View enhanced analysis factors →

Momentum indicator: 0.00 pp/period
Trend velocity: 0.000 pp/period
Trend acceleration: 0.00 pp/period²
Mean reversion: +2.72 pp
RSI: 50 (neutral)
MACD: neutral
Regime: choppy
Technical adjustment: -0.00 pp
Technical weight: 50% (Pro enhanced)
Sentiment: bearish (60% confidence)
News Impact: medium
Adjustment: -1.8pp from news

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Forecast Comparison

See how premium predictions differ from standard.

Standard

16%

Difference

+1.4 pp

👑Premium

17%

B) Market check

Compare the market-implied YES probability vs SakiCast.

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Market implied (YES)

**.*%

SakiCast (YES)

**.*%

Difference

**.*pp

More detail (chart + model inputs + methodology)

Probability history

Line chart of estimated YES probability over time.

Model inputs

Simplified factors used in this forecast.

EMA signal: 16.0% YES
Rolling-average (SMA): 16.0% YES
Trend bias: 0.0 percentage points
Volatility weighting: 100%
RSI: 50 (neutral)
MACD: neutral
Market regime: choppy
Technical adjustment: -0.0pp

Multi-Timeframe Analysis

Signals across different time windows for a more robust view.

Multi-Timeframe Analysis

16.0% composite

Consistency

Strong

100%

Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?

Enhanced Forecast

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How This Forecast Works