SakiCast

A) Forecast

Loading forecast data...

C) Next step

B) Market check

Loading market comparison...

Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025? — SakiCast — SakiCast

←Back to forecasts

Event

Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?

Good DataHigh confidence

Events/Forecast details

Volume:$1.3M

Liquidity:$21.7K

Trades end:2 weeks, Feb 28, 2026

A) Standard Forecast

Estimated probability based on market data and a smoothing signal.

Create a free account to unlock full forecast details

YES

**.*%

YESNO

C) Verify & Trade

External link. SakiCast does not handle trading.

Open on Polymarket ↗

Always verify data on the original market before making decisions. SakiCast provides estimates only.

Enhanced Forecast🤖

News sentiment-enhanced prediction with market analysis.

Enhanced Forecast

⭐PRO📈Bullish Signal

High confidence

🤖

News Analysis+2.1pp from news

Recent news articles suggest an increase in tariffs, which could potentially lead to higher revenue, thus increasing the probability of the market resolving YES

•Trump's announcement of pharma tariffs up to 250% could significantly increase tariff revenue
•Tariff revenue has already shown an increase in FY 2025, amid legal uncertainty
•The implementation of tariffs on pharmaceuticals and chips is expected to happen soon, which could further boost revenue

Enhanced YES

⭐PRO

Enhanced NO

⭐PRO

94%

Market YES

Difference

+4.0 pp

ML Indicators

Momentum

Neutral

Trend Velocity

0.00%

Volatility

0.0%

Confidence

70%

View enhanced analysis factors →

Momentum indicator: 0.00 pp/period
Trend velocity: 0.000 pp/period
Trend acceleration: -0.05 pp/period²
Mean reversion: +3.84 pp
RSI: 50 (neutral)
MACD: neutral
Regime: choppy
Technical adjustment: -0.00 pp
Technical weight: 50% (Pro enhanced)
Sentiment: bullish (70% confidence)
News Impact: medium
Adjustment: +2.1pp from news

🔐

Sign In Required

Forecast Comparison

See how premium predictions differ from standard.

Standard

Difference

+1.9 pp

👑Premium

B) Market check

Compare the market-implied YES probability vs SakiCast.

Create a free account to unlock full forecast details

Market implied (YES)

**.*%

SakiCast (YES)

**.*%

Difference

**.*pp

More detail (chart + model inputs + methodology)

Probability history

Line chart of estimated YES probability over time.

Model inputs

Simplified factors used in this forecast.

EMA signal: 2.0% YES
Rolling-average (SMA): 2.0% YES
Trend bias: 0.0 percentage points
Volatility weighting: 100%
RSI: 50 (neutral)
MACD: neutral
Market regime: choppy
Technical adjustment: -0.0pp

Multi-Timeframe Analysis

Signals across different time windows for a more robust view.

Multi-Timeframe Analysis

2.0% composite

Consistency

Strong

100%

Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?

Enhanced Forecast

Sign In Required

How This Forecast Works